RCP 8.5: The “Mother of all” Junk Climate Science

Watts Up With That?

Guest post by David Middleton

Featured image borrowed from here.

Nearly every catastrophic global warming doomsday scenario, particularity those involving icecap failures and Noah-size sea level rises are based on the “RCP 8.5” scenario.

RCP_Def https://www.wmo.int/pages/themes/climate/emission_scenarios.php

Representative Concentration (or Carbon)Pathway 8.5 assumes a “rising radiative forcing pathway leading to 8.5 W/m² in 2100.”  It is generally assumed, with little dissent, that each doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration will add 3.7 W/m² to the net infrared radiative flux.

A doubling of the supposedly stable pre-industrial CO2 level (280 ppmv to 560 ppmv) should yield 3.7 W/m² of additional forcing to the net infrared radiative flux.  In order to get 8.5 W/m², the atmospheric CO2 concentration would have to rise to 1,370 ppm…

rcp-guide-table4 http://www.skepticalscience.com/rcp.php?t=3

Note: Yes.  The above is from SkepSci.  I checked the math.  It’s close enough.

Does any sane person really believe that the atmospheric CO2 concentration could rise from the current…

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