Bayesian parameter estimation: Radiocarbon dating re-examined

“[H]ow good is the “probability matching” (frequentist coverage) of the method”?

Climate Audit

A guest article by Nic Lewis

Introduction

In April 2014 I published a guest article about statistical methods applicable to radiocarbon dating, which criticised existing Bayesian approaches to the problem. A standard – subjective Bayesian – method of inference about the true calendar age of a single artefact from a radiocarbon date determination (measurement) involved using a uniform-in-calendar-age prior. I argued that this did not, as claimed, equate to not including anything but the radiocarbon dating information, and was not a scientifically sound method for inference about isolated examples of artefacts.[1]

My article attracted many comments, not all agreeing with my arguments. This article follows up and expands on points in my original article, and discusses objections raised.

First, a brief recap. Radiocarbon dating involves determining the radiocarbon age of (a sample from) an artefact and then converting that determination to an estimate of the true calendar age t

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