“[H]ow good is the “probability matching” (frequentist coverage) of the method”?
A guest article by Nic Lewis
In April 2014 I published a guest article about statistical methods applicable to radiocarbon dating, which criticised existing Bayesian approaches to the problem. A standard – subjective Bayesian – method of inference about the true calendar age of a single artefact from a radiocarbon date determination (measurement) involved using a uniform-in-calendar-age prior. I argued that this did not, as claimed, equate to not including anything but the radiocarbon dating information, and was not a scientifically sound method for inference about isolated examples of artefacts.
My article attracted many comments, not all agreeing with my arguments. This article follows up and expands on points in my original article, and discusses objections raised.
First, a brief recap. Radiocarbon dating involves determining the radiocarbon age of (a sample from) an artefact and then converting that determination to an estimate of the true calendar age t
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