Marvel et al.: Implications of forcing efficacies for climate sensitivity estimates – update

Climate Audit

A guest article by Nicholas Lewis


In a recent article I discussed the December 2015 Marvel et al.[1] paper, which contends that estimates of the transient climate response (TCR) and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) derived from recent observations of changes in global mean surface temperature (GMST) are biased low. Marvel et al. reached this conclusion from analysing the response of the GISS-E2-R climate model in simulations over the historical period (1850–2005) when driven by six individual forcings, and also by all forcings together, the latter referred to as the ‘Historical’ simulation. The six individual forcings analysed were well-mixed greenhouse gases (GHG), anthropogenic aerosols, ozone, land use change, solar variations and volcanoes. Ensembles of five simulation runs were carried out for each constituent individual forcing, and of six runs for all forcings together. Marvel et al.’s estimates were based on averaging over the relevant simulation runs; taking ensemble averages…

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Briffa embraces tree ring uncertainty in new study, gives ‘message to the paleoclimate community’

Watts Up With That?

From the UNIVERSITY OF OTAGO and the “one tree doesn’t work anymore” department:

1280px-Pinus_sylvestris_wood_ray_section_1_beentree Scots Pine tree rings

Uncertainties in tree-ring-based climate reconstructions probed

Current approaches to reconstructing past climate by using tree-ring data need to be improved on so that they can better take uncertainty into account, new research led out of New Zealand’s University of Otago suggests.

Tree growth rings are commonly used as climate proxies because they can be well-dated and the width of each ring is influenced by the climatic conditions of the year it grew in.

In a paper appearing in the Journal of the American Statistical Association, statistics and tree ring researchers from Otago, the US and UK examined the statistical methods and procedures commonly used to reconstruct historic climate variables from tree-ring data.

The research was led by Dr Matthew Schofield of Otago’s Department of Mathematics and Statistics. His co-authors on…

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Wind farm study finally recognizes that all is not well with wind power

Watts Up With That?


Recognizing health concerns in wind energy development a key recommendation in new study

As wind energy development blossoms in Canada and around the world, opposition at the community level is challenging the viability of the industry. A new study with research from the University of Waterloo, published in Nature Energy, identifies four major factors leading to disputes over wind farms, and offers recommendations on avoiding disagreements.

The research project focuses on the province of Ontario. It lists socially mediated health concerns, distribution of financial benefits, lack of meaningful engagement and failure to treat landscape concerns seriously, as the core stumbling blocks to a community’s acceptance of wind energy development.

“There has been debate over whether reported negative health outcomes in nearby residents are valid” says Tanya Christidis, a PhD researcher at Waterloo’s School of Planning, who contributed to the study by looking specifically at the health…

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Bob Carter

Climate Audit

I was very saddened to learn of the sudden death of Bob Carter ( herehere).   He was one of the few people in this field that I regarded as a friend.  He was only a few years older than me and we got along well personally.

carterI will not attempt to comment on his work as that is covered elsewhere, but do wish to mention something personal.  In 2003, when I was unknown to anyone other than my friends and family, I had been posting comments on climate reconstructions at a chatline.  Bob emailed me out of the blue with encouragement, saying that I was looking at the data differently than anyone else and that I should definitely follow it through.  Without his specific encouragement, it is not for sure that I ever would have bothered trying to write up what became McIntyre and McKitrick (2003) or anything…

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Britain Faces Energy Crisis, Engineers Warn – Green Isn’t Working

Watts Up With That?

Via The GWPF

Energy bills will soar as green policies shut coal-fired power stations and cause an “electricity supply crisis”, experts say. Prices will be forced up as the UK has to import more power, according to a report by the Institution of Mechanical Engineers today. –Craig Woodhouse, The Sun, 26 January 2016

The UK is heading for a severe electricity supply crisis by 2025, the Institution of Mechanical Engineers (IME) is warning today. IME, which has more than 112,000 members in 140 countries says the closure of coal and nuclear plants would lead to a 40-55% shortfall amid growing demand. And the group’s new report – Engineering the UK Electricity Gap– also says plans to plug the gap by building combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) plants are unrealistic as the UK would need about 30 of them in less than 10 years. IME head of energy and environment…

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Britain Embracing Electric Cars

Watts Up With That?

electric_car Electric car owned by Anthony Watts

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

British sales of Electric and Hybrid cars have surged in the last year. But there might be more than green conscience driving the rise in sales.

According to GoUltraLow;

Last year over 28,000 electric cars were registered across the country. That’s more than the combined totals of electric cars sold every year since 2010, and marks a phenomenal 94% annual rise compared to the previous year.

Plug-in power is fast becoming a mainstream option for drivers alongside petrol and diesel, and EV popularity shows no sign of slowing.

We saw every region in the UK record improve year-on-year registrations for plug-in cars. Ultra low emission vehicles (ULEVs) proved to be the most popular in the South East of England, closely followed by the South West and the West Midlands.

Read more:

Why are electric cars becoming…

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If it is Hot, it is Climate, if it is Cold, its Climate

Watts Up With That?


Guest essay by Eric Worrall

Remember all the recent press about the mild winter, how the bears were waking up early, flowers blooming in December, all a sign of the coming global warming apocalypse?

Now that winter has turned cold and snowy, this is also being seen in some quarters, as irrefutable proof of our unnatural tampering with the balance of nature.

Sorry! Winter Storm Jonas doesn’t make climate change a liberal hoax

Good news, folks! It turns out that climate change is a big ol’ liberal hoax after all. Need proof? Just look out your window: If you’re anywhere east of Tupelo, you’re probably seeing a bunch of white stuff falling from the sky, compliments of Winter Storm Jonas. We call that “snow,” and it proves once and for all that “global warming” is a conspiracy dreamed up by known communist Al Gore to bring down the world economy…

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Amazing time-lapse of #blizzard2016

Watts Up With That?

From NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation office via William Putnam –

The NASA GEOS-5 atmospheric data assimilation system follows an historic winter storm as it approaches the mid-Atlantic this weekend 2016 January 22-24 where it is expected to produce a wide swath of more than 2 feet of snow. The near-real-time operational GEOS-5 system ingests more than 5 million observations every six hours producing comprehensive analyses and forecasts of the atmosphere each day at 25-km global resolution. This experimental product uses the global mesoscale capabilities of GEOS-5 to downscale the operational product to 6-km global resolution. Subsequent forecasts are launched with this product providing a detailed view of the developing storm and its predicted evolution across the region.

The simulated field visualized here is outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). Clouds block longwave radiation that is emitted from the Earth’s surface producing cold OLR values in regions of thick/deep cloudiness. Thus, OLR…

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