Repeated Trials, Autocorrelation, and Albedo

Watts Up With That?

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

OK, quick gambler’s question. Suppose I flip seven coins in the air at once and they all seven come up heads. Are the coins loaded?

Near as I can tell, statistics was invented by gamblers to answer this type of question. The seven coins are independent events. If they are not loaded the chances of a heads is fifty percent. The odds of seven heads is the product of the individual odds, or one-half to the seventh power. This is 1/128, less than 1%, less than one chance in a hundred that this is just a random result. Possible but not very likely. As a man who is not adverse to a wager, I’d say it’s a pretty good bet the coins were loaded.

However, suppose we take the same seven coins, and we flip all seven of them not once, but ten times. Now what…

View original post 1,426 more words

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