The Kaufman Tautology

Climate Audit

The revised PAGES2K Arctic reconstruction used 56 proxies (down three from the original 59).  Although McKay and Kaufman 2014 didn’t mention the elephant in the room changes in their reconstruction (as discussed at CA herehere), they reported with some satisfaction that “decadal-scale variability in the revised [PAGES2K] reconstruction is quite similar to that determined by Kaufman et al. (2009)”, presumably thinking that this replication in the larger dataset was evidence of robustness of at least this property of the data. However, while the decadal scale similarity is real enough, this is more of a tautology rather than evidence of robustness, as 16 of the most highly weighted PAGES2K proxies come from the Kaufman et al 2009 network  (the 22 Kaufman 2009 proxies being assigned over 80% of the total weight and the other  34 proxies under 20%.)

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