Evaluating the Redskins Trade for Robert Griffin III

A brilliant, if technical, analysis of the ridiculous RG3 trade.

The Harvard Sports Analysis Collective

Baylor’s Robert Griffin III

On Friday night, reports emerged that the Washington Redskins had agreed to give the
St. Louis Rams their first and second round picks this year, along with their 2013 and 2014 first round picks in exchange for the second overall pick. While there are a number of storylines in this trade, this post examines the expected value that the Redskins sacrificed to get the second overall pick. Because I grew up in Washington, this post is Redskins-centric. If you are wondering how it affects the Rams, just flip all of the analysis below.

Using my previous analysis of the draft, this post examines two things: first, how much the Redskins actually paid for Robert Griffin III, and second, how well RGIII has to perform to justify this price. Because this trade involves future draft picks whose exact overall number is impossible to know, we must assign…

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