A Preliminary Look at the Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Since 1940 along Hurricane Joaquin’s Forecasted Storm Track

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Guest Post by BobTisdale

As of today’s 5am eastern NOAA forecast, Hurricane Joaquin may impact the east coast of the United States from North Carolina to New England, with it downgrading to a tropical storm by the time it nears New Jersey. See the cone in Figure 1 from NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. If history repeats itself, and it’s very likely to do so, alarmists will be claiming that Hurricane Joaquin is being made worse by oceans warmed by manmade greenhouse gases.

Figure 1

Figure 1

We ran into those nonsensical claims when Sandy wreaked havoc three years ago, and we countered them with presentations of data from NOAA:

NOAA has removed the weekly Reynolds OI.v2…

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The “Blade” of Ocean2K

Originally posted on Climate Audit:

I’ve had a longstanding interest in high-resolution ocean proxies (with posts as early as 2005 – see Ocean Sediment tag) and had already written detailed reviews of many of the individual high-resolution series used in Ocean2K (e.g. herehere herehereherehere). In these prior discussions, the divergence between the 20th century proxy data and 20th century instrumental data had been a major issue.  The non-bladedness of Ocean2K data was therefore unsurprising to me.

Although, for their main figures, the Ocean2K authors made the questionable decisions to voluntarily degrade their data both into 200-year bins and from deg C to SD units, in their Supplementary Information, they identified a network of 21 series with high-resolution extending into the 20th century, showing results in 25-year bins but only for the short period 1850-2000, once again re-scaling, this time using only six values (25-year bins) for each series.

In my first post…

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NPR radio station WYPR gets an earful on climate change from an educated listener

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Dr. Roger Stritmatter writes:

For your information, I pass on this letter, which has just been sent to Anthony Brandon, WYPR station manager.  If you think it is suitable, I would be glad to see it appear as a guest blog on Watt’s Up.  Thank you for being such an important part of my  education on this topic.

2216 North Charles Street
Baltimore, Maryland 21218
Dear WYPR:

As a sometime contributor and frequent listener to public radio, I’ve got a gripe. Having put off many times writing this letter, and knowing from experience how almost impossible it is to effectively negotiate the gauntlet of your phone-in process to make a live comment,  I’m finally unable to keep silent any longer. Since some things that I am going to say may easily be twisted the wrong way by some, let me clarify something for the record: I’m writing this…

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Climate Insanity on steroids!

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Economies collapsing, Middle East imploding – and Obama & Pals obsess over … the climate!

Guest essay by Paul Driessen

The Middle East is imploding. Islamic State butchers are annihilating Christian and other communities. Putin is sending arms to Assad. Under the Obama-Iran nuclear deal, the mullahs will get $100+ billion to expand their proxy terror war on Israel and the West. Saudi Arabia has 100,000 empty air-conditioned tents but won’t take any of the millions who’ve been driven from their homes. Neither will most of the other 22 Arab League nations or 57 Organization of Islamic Cooperation member countries.

Instead, millions of mostly Muslim migrants, militants and refugees are heading to Europe – with limited money, education, job skills, or desire to assimilate. They demand entry into EU countries whose energy, economic, employment and welfare systems are already foundering or nearing collapse.

EU nations have hobbled their nuclear and…

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the pope’s superficial, sanctimonious, fortune-cookie message to the world

By George Will

Pope Francis embodies sanctity but comes trailing clouds of sanctimony. With a convert’s indiscriminate zeal, he embraces ideas impeccably fashionable, demonstrably false and deeply reactionary. They would devastate the poor on whose behalf he purports to speak — if his policy prescriptions were not as implausible as his social diagnoses are shrill.

Supporters of Francis have bought newspaper and broadcast advertisements to disseminate some of his woolly sentiments that have the intellectual tone of fortune cookies. One example: “People occasionally forgive, but nature never does.” The Vatican’s majesty does not disguise the vacuity of this. Is Francis intimating that environmental damage is irreversible? He neglects what technology has accomplished regarding London’s air (see Page 1 of Dickens’s “Bleak House”) and other matters.

George F. Will writes a twice-weekly column on politics and domestic and foreign affairs. He began his column with The Post in 1974, and he received the Pulitzer Prize for Commentary in 1977. He is also a contributor to FOX News’ daytime and primetime programming. View Archive
And the Earth is becoming “an immense pile of filth”? Hyperbole is a predictable precursor of yet another U.N. Climate Change Conference — the 21st since 1995. Fortunately, rhetorical exhibitionism increases as its effectiveness diminishes. In his June encyclical and elsewhere, Francis lectures about our responsibilities, but neglects the duty to be as intelligent as one can be. This man who says “the Church does not presume to settle scientific questions” proceeds as though everything about which he declaims is settled, from imperiled plankton to air conditioning being among humanity’s “harmful habits.” The church that thought it was settled science that Galileo was heretical should be attentive to all evidence.

Francis deplores “compulsive consumerism,” a sin to which the 1.3 billion persons without even electricity can only aspire. He leaves the Vatican to jet around praising subsistence farming, a romance best enjoyed from 30,000 feet above the realities that such farmers yearn to escape.

The saint who is Francis’s namesake supposedly lived in sweet harmony with nature. For most of mankind, however, nature has been, and remains, scarcity, disease and natural — note the adjective — disasters. Our flourishing requires affordable, abundant energy for the production of everything from food to pharmaceuticals. Poverty has probably decreased more in the past two centuries than in the preceding three millennia because of industrialization powered by fossil fuels. Only economic growth has ever produced broad amelioration of poverty, and since growth began in the late 18th century, it has depended on such fuels.
Matt Ridley, author of “The Rational Optimist,” notes that coal supplanting wood fuel reversed deforestation, and that “fertilizer manufactured with gas halved the amount of land needed to produce a given amount of food.” The capitalist commerce that Francis disdains is the reason the portion of the planet’s population living in “absolute poverty” ($1.25 a day) declined from 53 percent to 17 percent in three decades after 1981. Even in low-income countries, writes economist Indur Goklany, life expectancy increased from between 25 to 30 years in 1900 to 62 years today. Sixty-three percent of fibers are synthetic and derived from fossil fuels; of the rest, 79 percent come from cotton, which requires synthetic fertilizers and pesticides. “Synthetic fertilizers and pesticides derived from fossil fuels,” he says, “are responsible for at least 60 percent of today’s global food supply.” Without fossil fuels, he says, global cropland would have to increase at least 150 percent — equal to the combined land areas of South America and the European Union — to meet current food demands.

Francis grew up around the rancid political culture of Peronist populism, the sterile redistributionism that has reduced his Argentina from the world’s 14th highest per-capita gross domestic product in 1900 to 63rd today. Francis’s agenda for the planet — “global regulatory norms” — would globalize Argentina’s downward mobility.

As the world spurns his church’s teachings about abortion, contraception, divorce, same-sex marriage and other matters, Francis jauntily makes his church congruent with the secular religion of “sustainability.” Because this is hostile to growth, it fits Francis’s seeming sympathy for medieval stasis, when his church ruled the roost, economic growth was essentially nonexistent and life expectancy was around 30.

Francis’s fact-free flamboyance reduces him to a shepherd whose selectively reverent flock, genuflecting only at green altars, is tiny relative to the publicity it receives from media otherwise disdainful of his church. Secular people with anti-Catholic agendas drain his prestige, a dwindling asset, into promotion of policies inimical to the most vulnerable people and unrelated to what once was the papacy’s very different salvific mission.

He stands against modernity, rationality, science and, ultimately, the spontaneous creativity of open societies in which people and their desires are not problems but precious resources. Americans cannot simultaneously honor him and celebrate their nation’s premises.